Forward of the 2024 Republican Nationwide Conference, the get together has softened its language round entry to abortion in a draft model of the get together platform, mirroring the stance of the previous president and Republican nominee, Donald Trump. Many main media shops report that this platform change is probably going a transfer to cut back vulnerability on the difficulty of abortion within the run as much as the election. In reality, this would be the first time in 40 years that the Republican Celebration’s platform doesn’t name for a federal ban on abortion.
Whereas a majority of rank-and-file Republicans oppose a legislation guaranteeing a nationwide proper to abortion, many assist legal guidelines permitting entry to abortion in sure conditions. For instance, most Republican and Republican-leaning unbiased girls voters say they assist leaving it as much as the states to determine whether or not abortion is authorized (60%) or a legislation establishing a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of being pregnant (57%). However giant majorities of Republican girls additionally assist legal guidelines defending entry to abortion for sufferers who’re experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies (79%) and a federal legislation defending entry to abortions within the case of rape or incest in all states even the place abortion is banned (69%).
Republican girls of reproductive age, ages 18 to 49, maintain barely much less conservative views on abortion insurance policies and a slim majority assist a legislation guaranteeing a nationwide proper to abortion (53%). Comparable shares of youthful Republican girls voters assist leaving it as much as the states to determine whether or not abortion is authorized (54%) or assist a nationwide ban on abortion at 15 weeks (53%). With about half of youthful Republican girls voters supporting every of those three coverage proposals, it’s clear that there’s some uncertainty amongst these voters on how abortion entry ought to be addressed on the federal stage. Nonetheless, most youthful Republican girls assist entry to abortion in sure circumstances, most notably in cases the place sufferers are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies.
Republican girls voters’ views on abortion should not monolithic. Whereas most (58%) Republican girls voters establish as “pro-life,” many (40%) say on the difficulty of abortion they’re extra “pro-choice.” As well as, half of Republican girls voters assume abortion ought to be authorized in all or most circumstances, the identical because the share who say abortion ought to be unlawful. Simply 13%, or about one in eight, Republican girls voters say abortion ought to be unlawful in all circumstances.
As soon as once more, views differ barely by age, with related shares of Republican girls voters of reproductive age (ages 18 to 49) saying they establish as “pro-life” (49%) and “pro-choice” (51%), whereas two-thirds of older Republican girls voters establish as “pro-life.” As well as, a majority (56%) of youthful Republican girls voters say abortion ought to be authorized in not less than most circumstances, together with one in 5 who say abortion ought to be authorized in all circumstances.
Whereas two-thirds of Republican girls voters say they belief former President Trump to do a greater job deciding abortion coverage on this nation in comparison with President Biden, 1 / 4 of Republican girls say they belief neither presidential candidate to do a greater job on this situation. Moreover, one in three Republican girls voters (34%) say neither political get together does a greater job of searching for the pursuits of girls. In reality, 16% of Republican girls of reproductive age say they assume the Democratic Celebration does a greater job of searching for the pursuits of girls than the Republican Celebration.
As soon as a cornerstone situation for the Republican Celebration – with most single-issue abortion voters being pro-life and Republican previous to the Dobbs choice – abortion is not a high voting situation for Republican voters since Roe v. Wade was overturned. Fewer than one in ten Republican girls (7%) say abortion is an important situation to their vote (in comparison with 13% of Democratic girls voters), nicely behind points akin to inflation (47%) and immigration (26%). Abortion additionally ranks decrease than inflation for unbiased girls (10%) alongside immigration and threats to democracy as their most essential voting situation. The dashboard exhibits how abortion ranks as a voting situation for the totally different teams of girls voters together with partisans, throughout age teams, and race and ethnicity.
Whereas the difficulty might not be motivating Republican girls to go to the polls (simply 3% of Republican girls voters say they might solely vote for a candidate who agrees with them on abortion), the get together’s general stance – which had been largely seen as anti-abortion – could also be disenchanting some voters.
The KFF Survey of Girls Voters, carried out earlier this summer time, exhibits many ladies voters, together with Republican girls, should not happy with their selections of presidential candidates. Whereas Republican girls report being barely extra motivated to vote in comparison with Democratic girls, youthful Republican girls largely really feel just like the Republican Celebration doesn’t share their views on reproductive well being points and need abortion to be authorized usually. Whereas many early studies concerning the drafted adjustments to the Republican Nationwide Conference get together platform speculate that they’re written to appease the Republican nominee for President, these adjustments additionally, maybe coincidentally, might assist the get together attraction to a key voting base – Republican girls.
