IATA: Air cargo demand robust in October but outlook less positive

Willie Walsh. Photo: IATA

Air cargo volumes remained robust in October as traffic was up year on year for the fifteenth consecutive month but the coming 12 months should be viewed with caution, according to IATA.

The latest statistics from IATA show that in October demand in cargo tonne km (CTK) terms increased by 9.8% compared with last year, while capacity in available CTKs was up 5.9% and the cargo load factor increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.3%.

The increased capacity was largely driven by the addition of international belly hold space, which was up 8.5%, while dedicated freighter capacity increased by 5.6% as levels neared 2021 peak levels, IATA said.

Source: IATA

IATA director general Willie Walsh said that air cargo yields in October were up 10.6% on 2023 and 49% on 2019 but added the demand outlook for next year was less positive.

“Global air cargo yields (including surcharges) continue to rise, up 10.6% on 2023 and 49% on 2019 levels. While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, we must look to 2025 with some caution.

“The incoming Trump Administration’s announced intention to impose significant tariffs on its top trading partners—Canada, China and Mexico—has the potential to upend global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence.

“The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds.”

Looking at market indicators, IATA highlighted several metrics; industrial production rose 1.6% in September while the global goods trade increased 2.4% for a sixth consecutive month of growth.

“The increase in trade is partly due to businesses stockpiling inventory ahead of potential disruptions, like the US port strike,” IATA explained.

Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark, indicating growth.

However, the PMI for new export orders, remained below the 50-mark, suggesting ongoing uncertainty and weakness in global trade.

The airline association added that US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.17 percentage points to 2.6% in October, ending a six-month decline.

“In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU increased by 0.24 percentage points to 2.3%,” IATA said. “China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.3% in October, sparking concerns of an economic slowdown.”

Looking at regional performance, Asia Pacific airlines registered a 13.4% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October and capacity increased by 9.3%.

Cargo demand at North American carriers was up 9.5% compared with last year and capacity increased by 5.8%.

European carriers registered 7.6% demand growth for the month and capacity increased 3.9%.

Middle Eastern carriers saw cargo traffic improve 4.5% and capacity was up 0.8%.

Latin American carriers noted an 18.5% year-on-year improvement for the month, the strongest growth among the regions, and capacity increased 5.8%.

Finally, African airlines saw 1.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the slowest among regions, and capacity increased by 7.7%.