Here comes the market recovery?

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We’re so back, maybe

X

“Has the long awaited freight recovery just begun?” — Cambridge Capital’s Benjamin Gordon on X

From ship to shore — Don’t look now but container costs are soaring again with reports of $10,000 containers rolling in. 

“Here we go again. $10,000 containers 👀” — Flexport’s Ryan Petersen on X

So what’s new? Attacks in the Red Sea and low water levels in the Panama Canal are causing shippers to respond to longer lead times. With ocean freight getting pulled forward, produce season and Prime Day on tap, this elevation may continue. 

“Have a ton of our providers tell us they can’t find space anymore … contract rates mean nothing. scrambling for 9 days now to find rides for containers that shipper can’t hold anymore …  total mess” — Bally Logistics’ Brent Dean on X

According to freight YouTube superstar and Campbell University professor Sal Mecogliano, 66% fewer ships have voyaged through the Panama Canal during the low-water-level backup. 

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Volume and space — Outbound tender volumes are ascending the SONAR charts in early June, and right now we’re just under where volume was at at this point in 2022.

SONAR

Where’s the freight? — The Outbound Tender Volume Index map in SONAR is seeing a number of elevated markets as much of the board turns green.

It isn’t just SONAR either. During the keynote by UPS’ Bill Seward at Future of Supply Chain, he too said the fundamentals are changing and that the company is seeing green shoots. Take a listen to this clip with him from the session.

He also cautioned, “The overwhelming sentiment we hear from customers is one of caution. I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of bold moves before the U.S. election from customers that we’re talking to.”

X

Jobs fall — Freight is a capacity-driven world and also one where attrition and job loss may actually fuel recovery. We’ve beaten this drum a million times, but one of the core issues at play during the freight recession has been the massive influx of brokers and carriers over the pandemic years.

Regarding the drop in truck transportation jobs in May, FreightWaves’ John Kingston reports, “The decline is the third-largest since jobs began rising in 2020 after the tremendous drop first reported in April 2020.”

Freight broker attrition — Brush Pass Research has released its latest data on active freight brokerages, and it isn’t pretty. According to Kevin Hill, “June 2024 data shows there are 10.9% fewer freight brokerages YoY and 10.3% fewer compared to two years ago.”

“Historically this is the longest and deepest slump in 25 years, and much worse than closures during the Great Recession.” — Hill on LinkedIn

In fact, Brush Pass says the only time worse was in 2013, “when 7,991 authorities went inactive before the minimum on surety bonds were raised.”

Channel check — What are you seeing on the market right now? Let me know what’s going on beyond the data and send your reply here. 

P.S. You think RoaringKitty could move this market like GameStop?

Rate the strap work gone wrong

2KUTV

Don’t try this at home — If you follow me on social media, you may have seen some of my rate the strap work posts. I make them A. because they’re funny and B. to bring attention to load securement so we don’t see incidents like this one that happened in Utah.

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In fact, I even called out moving mattress by using yourself as the strap just a week ago. Unfortunately, Lydia Kessinger must not be a follower.

On Thursday, 2KUTV reported, “Authorities are reminding drivers to secure their load after a Utah bride-to-be was thrown from a truck while lying on a king-sized mattress in an attempt to keep it from flying away during transport.”

The Utah DOT says the couple was traveling down the road at 50 mph when the mattress and Lydia were yeeted into the road from the bed of a truck. 

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Fortunately, Lydia was able to get out of the road before getting game overed like a bad round of Frogger.

Ironically enough, Thursday was National Secure Your Load Day. Remember, everyone, when transporting goods always rate the strap work.

By the way, Rate The Strap Work shirts will be hitting the WTT Shop soon!

Future of Supply Chain ’24

A great time in ATL — Just got back from Atlanta and FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain. It was another remarkable event with great vibes and even better conversations. What really stood out to me this time, especially now that I’ve been going to events in the FreightTech space for half a decade, was the level of positivity.

It’s no secret that FreightTech has gotten as beat up as anybody during the freight recession, but instead of being filled with self-loathing and doubt, I saw fighters and survivors. The people make this industry, and the ones who have walked through the fire and are still standing are some of the best minds in this space.

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Some highlights were doing a pair of live WTT episodes, hosting the Shipper of Choice Awards, listening in to some amazing talks on the Fortis Analysis stage, Ryan Petersen and Craig Fuller’s keynote, crashing a Porsche (fortunately it was in a simulator), almost getting hit by a train while in a bus on the way to crashing said Porsche, and FaceTiming my 7-year-old on Monday night so we could watch WWE RAW together.

Lowlights? Well, FreightWaves didn’t take home the win in the great debate. Congratulations to St. Christopher Truckers Relief Fund, which will be getting a $10K donation as the named charity of the winner, Ken Adamo at DAT.

How could the debate have been better? Personally, I think the data talk was interesting but what it lacked was a focus around the debate that permeated social media. For example, why DAT denied there was a freight recession for so long. If they throw me up there to moderate a rematch, you can bet your ass I’m bringing my spice rack.

Now on demand

WTT Live from FOSC24 Day 1

WTT Live from FOSC24 Day 2

The rest of the noise

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Don’t be a stranger,

Dooner