The airfreight industry is bracing for continued volatility as changing global conditions threaten to dampen demand. Despite an 18% surge in air cargo volumes last year, Scan Global Logistics (SGL) cautions that double-digit growth may not be achievable in 2025.
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SGL attributes last year’s robust performance to disruptions in ocean freight caused by the Red Sea crisis. However, recent progress in resolving attacks in the region could reduce the reliance on air cargo, potentially impacting demand in the near term.
David Jinks, head of consumer research at UK-based Parcelhero, highlights further challenges, including potential policy shifts under the new U.S. administration. “Traders pushing for growth in U.S. online sales may face tighter scrutiny from the External Revenue Service, while Trump-era tariffs could redirect UK manufacturers back toward the EU,” Jinks explained.
Meanwhile, a report by Danish shipping giant Maersk underscores the growing trend toward localized and regional supply chains. Factors like faster delivery needs, cost reduction, and geopolitical risk mitigation are driving companies to establish manufacturing hubs closer to consumers. This shift poses a long-term threat to long-haul airfreight demand.
Other challenges flagged by Maersk include rising energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating global trade conditions. It emphasized the importance of agility for businesses and governments to navigate these uncertainties.
Despite these headwinds, SGL remains optimistic about the airfreight market’s resilience, largely due to the sustained growth of e-commerce. Platforms like TikTok and Instagram venturing into live shopping are further accelerating this trend.
“TikTok Live shopping drove a 93% increase in daily sales last year,” noted Jinks. “Content creation and AI-driven marketing will continue to fuel demand as social commerce expands.”
Maersk’s report also projects steady economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region, a key driver of global airfreight demand. With a forecasted 4.4% growth rate in 2025, underpinned by strong domestic demand and improving labor markets, the region’s recovery from supply chain disruptions is expected to support air cargo volumes.
While geopolitical and economic shifts may challenge long-haul airfreight, the sector’s alignment with e-commerce growth and regional manufacturing trends promises to maintain its critical role in global trade.
