Air cargo tonnages from China to Europe have broadly recovered to their levels prior to China’s Golden Week holiday at the start of October.
Asia Pacific to USA total air cargo tonnages continued their recovery in week 42 (October 14-20) from the effects of China’s Golden Week holiday, rebounding by a further four percent WoW, thanks to a +10 percent WoW increase from China, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data. “Compared with last year, China-USA tonnages remain significantly down (-18 percent YoY) – part of a wider pattern of decline in China-USA tonnages in the second half of this year. That decline appears to have been triggered by tighter Customs rules and checks since July on inbound USA air cargo traffic from China, especially at Los Angeles. China to Los Angeles tonnages in week 42 were down by -37 percent YoY.”
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA, and from China to the USA, rebounded by a further three percent to $6.23 per kilo and $5.41 per kilo, respectively – taking Asia Pacific-USA spot rates +42 percent above their equivalent levels last year, and taking China-US spot rates +10 percent higher YoY, the update added.
Tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe have risen further in the last six weeks to their highest level this year, indicative of a possible ramping up of e-commerce and wider demand from this key origin market in the final months of the year.
Hong Kong to Europe tonnages in week 42 were +25 percent higher than their already strong levels in the equivalent week last year, the update added. Hong Kong to Europe tonnages in weeks 40-42 were +12 percent higher than their average weekly levels in September.
The consistent strengthening of the Hong Kong to Europe market in the last six weeks, despite the normally dampening effects of China’s Golden Week holiday period at the start of October, is one of the earliest and only indicators of a potential significant Q4 air cargo peak season emerging this year, the update added.
Average spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe in the last seven weeks have risen above the $5 per kilo level, fluctuating between $5.04 and $5.31, and standing at $5.15 in week 42. China to Europe spot rates rebounded to $4.29 per kilo, taking both to around +13 percent above last year’s levels, the update added.
On a worldwide basis, average global rates edged up only slightly in the second full week of October and tonnages nudged downwards from most of the major regions – the biggest decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins.”The patterns in week 42 this year are similar to those of last year with tonnages having broadly recovered from the effects of China’s Golden Week holiday at the start of October, and poised for a potential surge in the final weeks of the year as occurred last year.”
