Worldwide air cargo tonnages continued to rebuild in the third week of 2025 following their seasonal drop in the final days of December and the start of this year, although spot rates continue to edge downwards.
“Tonnages regained eight percent in week 3 (January 13-19), after rebounding +29 percent the previous week,” according to the latest analysis by WorldACD Market Data. “That follows a total drop of around -35 percent in the last week of December and the first week of 2025, taking worldwide tonnages in week 3 back up to around 90 percent of their levels in the last full week before Christmas. Year on year (YoY), tonnages were up in week 3 by + three percent globally (and + two percent for week 2 and 3 combined).”
Average global rates remained more or less stable at $2.43 per kilo in week 3, based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, and around + seven percent higher than in week 3 last year, the update added. “Average worldwide spot rates dropped by a further three percent week on week (WoW) but they stand +16 percent higher than in the same week last year with spot prices from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) up by +54 percent YoY, and rates from Asia Pacific origins +20 percent higher.”
Asia Pacific demand steadyTonnages from Asia Pacific origins regained another +five percent in week 3, taking them +five percent above their levels this time last year, although they remain around -10 percent below the peak levels reached in week 49, the update added. “Some air cargo industry executives have expressed concern this month about how steep tonnages (mostly e-commerce) from Asia Pacific have dropped off since their peak in mid-December, especially to Europe. Analysis by WorldACD indicates that the overall decline this winter is not so significantly greater than last winter, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. With both seasons experiencing extremely strong peak season volumes from Asia Pacific, volumes last winter dropped by around -30 percent from their peak levels to a low point in the first week of January, compared with around -33 percent this winter. By week 3 in 2024, Asia Pacific tonnages had rebounded to around 95 percent of their weekly peak levels in December compared with around 90 percent this year in week 3.
“The recovery gap is more pronounced on Asia Pacific to Europe: last winter, Asia Pacific to Europe (and China to Europe) tonnages in week 3 had already rebounded back above their levels in weeks 48, 49 and 50, whereas this winter in week 3 Asia Pacific to Europe volumes are still well below (-20 percent) their levels achieved in week 49 with China to Europe tonnages about -15 percent below their peak.”
That, however, mostly reflects their extraordinarily high levels in the final weeks of 2024, and the comparisons are also complicated by the timings of Lunar New Year, which comes relatively early in 2025 on January 29 compared with February 10 in 2024, the update added.
