Jeff LeeHello and welcome to this episode of cargo facts connect, the podcast of cargo facts, the newsletter of record for the air cargo and freighter aircraft industries for over 40 years. I’m Jeff Lee, editor of cargo facts and it’s Friday, the 12th of April. We’re quickly approaching our annual Cargo Facts Asia conference, where the industry will meet to discuss the Asia Pacific market and the many changes taking place there. One major development in the region is the continued push by airlines toward fleet renewal and expansion as they select the next generation of widebody freighters. This week, I caught up with Crawford Hamilton, head of freighter marketing at Airbus, to talk about the status of the upcoming A350F and the recent deals the European manufacturer secured. Finally, we have a sneak peek at Cargo Facts Asia next week.
Jeff LeeWell, hello, Crawford. Thanks for joining us here at cargo facts, you’re a very busy man and hard to get hold of.
Crawford HamiltonYeah. Well, Jeff, it’s a it’s a pleasure to be on it, but yes, we are very busy at the moment, but that’s a good sign I think.
Jeff LeeIt is. We’ll talk about that in just a bit, but let’s start with the latest on the A350F program. Give us an update on what’s going on, the latest status and some of the major milestones you expect to hit for the rest of this year.
Crawford HamiltonWell, you know, you probably know that we’ve put to put the payload up from 190 tons up to 111 tonnes and of course we’ve now extended the door as well because we were at the same size as the competition and now we’ve expanded it by an extra frame. So we’re up to 170 inches wide now, and a lot of that and and that has all been done at customer request and that’s really where we’ve been for quite a while now is implementing our customer feedback and adopting roundabout 90 per cent of the ideas that were given to us by by the customers. And when we start to transfer that into what we’re doing on the program, I I think the big thing is, uh, we’re moving beyond PowerPoint in a big way. Umm, we’re really industrializing now, and that means a we’ve done the design of the aeroplane, we’ve done the design of the tooling, and now we’re actually starting to bring all that together by releasing the designs and actually starting to manufacture. So we’re getting a lot of components coming through now both from ourselves and kind of main subcontractors are remain contractors, so we’ve got things like the the PDU’s now under there, coming from our supplier, ancra in California. We’ve got a load of wingbox parts of the wing box like the wingbox frames and such like, and then probably very significantly, both the molds and the fuselage shells of the aircraft.
Jeff LeeRight.
Crawford HamiltonAs you’re probably aware, the 350 is made out of four fuselage shells and upper or lower and two side shells, and we’re now starting to get the shells manufactured for that first aircraft and then in terms of tooling, as I said, the the shell molds, but also setting up the file, the final assembly line here at Airbus for us to be able to actually assemble, assemble the aircraft and do do the parts of it that we want to do in the on the final assembly line of of the freighter, because obviously is different from a passenger aircraft. And then, also really sorting through getting all the, finalizing the processes for assembly ready for next year into final assembly, and then first flight and the mean time we test and test and test because whatever big targets is to make sure that we have a mature aircraft at EIS. So with that, we’ve got the high commonality from the passenger aircraft already and that kind of over 9,000,000 flight hours does help us for that. But for the freighter Pacific areas, testing really the name of the game, so they’ll be, you know, for the CLS for instance, there’s gonna be multiple Test strikes there to make sure that we can that that one the components work to the fully assembled CLS works and then of course we’re also going to have them have them on the Development aircraft during our development during our aircraft development program. Once we have the 1st 2 aircraft, first two aircraft built there will be testing on that as well. So that’s kind of where we are at the moment in terms of the program and it’s all going ahead full steam ahead really.
Jeff LeeYeah. I mean, it’s the, well first of all on the door as we know it’s it’s gonna be the largest door and it’s well this yeah battle of the doors is interesting and I can’t wait to see the the real thing. The mock up, but also uh, the real thing on the actual prototype, and it’s yeah, it must be exciting to see uh bits and pieces finally coming together and really starting to take shape, the final assembly line in Toulouse. We also had some recent major wins for Airbus and 350F to and I feel like I’m not alone, I don’t think, in saying that I think you deserve some kind of prize or medal. You know you had Turkish and Cathay at the end of 2023 and more recently, uh, earlier this year, Starlux Airlines. Uh. Completely new freighter operator. I mean, how are you feeling about all these? The major deals? Uh, and what else can we expect going forward for the rest of this year?
Crawford HamiltonWell, I I think first of all, we’re delighted. It shows what we’re doing is right and everything I’ve talked about in the last question is really coming in coming to fruition and people are starting to see it. I think though it’s reflected also in where we’re seeing the platform move as well. We’ve got nearly 300 orders now for the platform for the 351 thousand uh and it it self that maturity is being being shown up and if you start to look at the customers we’re getting, I mean we’ve got 9 new customers for the platform, which has been absolutely fantastic. But then you start to see that we do we move into you know, with Kathy, they already have the 351 thousand, they know the aircraft, they know the engine, they know how operates. Remember, they’re operating it in one of the longest routes in the world, so they really know they they really know that aeroplane very well. And that’s, I think helped very much in them making their decision on the freighter. And we see in a lot of operators they operate multiple variants of the 3:50. They operate on the pax side. The 900 and the 1000 there was and now we’re seeing that trend with the freighter with the freighter as well.
Jeff LeeRight.
Crawford HamiltonOf course, Singapore Airlines, one of our first orders, already operate large numbers of nine hundreds. So you know when we start to see that coming on the the synergies that that can give to an airline, then we really start to start to see the benefit there. Turkish was great again as you saw it was a was a kind of joint order there with the 1000 and of course already operating the 900 and of course there are, SAY also operating three 3200 FS as well.
Jeff LeeYeah.
Crawford HamiltonSo I’m Turkish is was, was huge as well. And then looking at starlux, you know a relatively young airline with with big ambitions. But again, that ambition to become a combination carrier out. Of course, one of the biggest markets say there in Taiwan.
Jeff LeeYeah.
Crawford HamiltonSo really seeing all these people coming in and doing very much the same as we’re seeing on the passenger side using the freighter as another variant in their fleet, we can see those synergies coming coming out and really seeing where it works because of course, I mean there’s other people done it as well, like KLM Martinair. If France Netty had as well as, so really that order book is making us very happy and the quality of the customers in the order book again is making his very happy as well. You know, I’m so. l in all, we feel we’ve done rather well. I think we’re now at round about a 50% market share with the 7778 F, so that’s good news says we’re credible there with 55 orders and happily I think we’re good that we’ve got doubled the customers. We’ve got 10 customers at the moment, so that really makes us feel where we’re doing the right thing. What we have to do now is keep doing it.
Jeff LeeYeah. And let’s see where you you get to at the end of this year.
Crawford HamiltonYes.
Jeff LeeOf course. What they some of you, your customers also have, which you maybe deliberately didn’t mention 747 freighters, and that’s obviously a huge endorsement for the A350F. Now you were talking as well about the Asia Pacific market and that’s of course well you’ve been in Asia actually a couple of times already this year, haven’t you?
Crawford HamiltonYes.
Jeff LeeAnd this region is and you’ll you’ll be back next week, but this region is characterized, in a way by, you know, just being home to many of the heavy hitters when it comes to freighter operators and starlux being new, but also being in Taiwan, as you mentioned, Cathay, of course, Singapore. This I mean the prospects in this market for the A350F are pretty big, aren’t they?
Crawford HamiltonI think yes, we do see a Asia as a very big opportunity for the 350F and I think for for me the way I see it is it’s it is due to Asia being very much part of the world. I know that sounds pretty obvious, but you know, we’re when we look at the world, we’re seeing trade expanding by about 3% in, in our global market forecast up to 20 up to 2042. We see air freight traffic round about 3.2%, which means it’s gonna double by 2042 and and you know the overall fleet going up by about 1000 aircraft and with replacement aircraft, something like 2 1/2 thousand there. I think you know, we look at the short term, yeah, there are issues. But I think you know now we’re seeing normality, a more normal world post COVID coming back to kind of 2019, I think the bellies coming back. So I think it’s a good sign. I mean, it’s very much part of the airfreight market. It’s not just about main deck freighters. With with, you know, roughly 50% of the traffic going in bellies and and and returning and then return to our normality. And I mean, China still gotta get there a little bit on the pax for the belly. But you know, there’s the Red Sea. Who’s what’s going on in the Red Sea, there’s the Panama Canal issues, shipping rates, rising tension, elections all over the world. So you know the the there’s a lot there, but when you start to look at Asia, I think obviously there’s a few things that stand out. I’m I think ecommerce stands out and I think the China plus one stands out and then the fact that just Asia is, is growing, there’s massive growth in Asia itself and not just latching on to to the to the rest of the world, you know, and when you see the fact that growth rate there will outpace world growth. It’s nearly 4% Air between the and cargo traffic between 2019 and 2042 that we see. But you know ecommerce, uh, China is still the workshop out of the world. Uh, and that market expanding massively by about a third by 2027, I think in terms of China plus one. Again, Air Freight point of view, China traffic seems to be holding up. It’s just an expansion into other countries and they are now benefiting as well. So massive growth there as well. And then you know the growth of the middle class within Asia, the economy doubling and their I, I all these things are really positive signs for airfreight and with the demands that these people and that that people put on on when they want their goods and they want them delivered. So I think that is really looking good. I mean when we start to look at Asia specifically, I we’re we see round about 450 small freighters. 250 roughly medium size and ran about 150 large freighters, so in Asia Pacific. So really, you know it’s it’s the powerhouse there. And as you see, you know the the economic center of the world moving E, it’s just so obvious that Asia’s going to Asia is going to drive the world a lot more than it has in the past. So and from that point of view, from an air freight point of view, I think it’s all very positive and it’s all very much opportunity for the 350 looking at the Airlines that already operate a in a the 350 in Asia, it’s a great marks been a great market for the 350 pax. We’ve just got to it’s up to us to build on that.
Jeff LeeWell, we, I mean you you’re head of freighter Marketing Airbus and we’ve been talking a lot about the A350, but of course the Airbus freighter range also includes medium wide body and narrow body conversions. And here in the Asia Pacific region, we and we’ve already seen UM, some interesting new operators entering the segment when it comes to the both A330 conversions and A321 in versions, haven’t we?
Crawford HamiltonYeah, I think I think it’s been great to see what’s been happening. And there we’ve also, you know, you’ve, you know, you’ve got people that Raya air, salam air and Pradhaan in India for instance coming in particularly in the three 20s. And then of course, we’re seeing it expansion on the three 30s as well. Uh umm, which has been, you know, people like Sichuan, and I think also what’s been noticeable is that a, a lot of the conversions are now being done in Asia as well. Uh. So with our partners at St AEROSPACE, bearing in mind of course that it it and EFW that we’re partnered with with someone in the region and I think that with the expansion of facilities a A particularly in China, if we were seeing a rapidly Morgan conversions coming up, both three 30s and also the 3:20 family, it’s because it’s starting to become a a more Asian product and one that people can depend on. And I think when you start to get customers of the quality of people like Yamato and Japan, and of course we get the teleport as well, we’re starting to see an indigo. We’re starting to see the fact that Asia’s very much move buying into our small and medium sized freighter strategy in terms of the P2F. So from that point of view, I think we’re very happy with the take up with the take up in Asia and we want to make sure that the customers there are happy with the aircraft in operation.
Jeff LeeRight. Well, we briefly covered this. But uh yeah, of course next week you’ll be speaking on a panel at cargo Facts Asia event in Singapore. Give us a quick take on, you know what it is you are looking forward to or what you hope to achieve at the event next week?
Crawford HamiltonI think with the Event it it’s a it’s it’s primarily a a great place to get together with a customers and other stakeholders. And a speak to them. And you know we we talked a bit about the market. That’s where we find out about the market. We find out about the market from the people who are genuinely operating in the market and and doing it on a day to day basis. As a manufacturer, we need we need that these conversations. I think also it’s fantastic to see the panels and such like and again get that input from other stakeholders whether they are other manufacturers, conversion houses, but particularly the leasing companies and the operators to find out what’s going on in their backyard and be able to take that back to us so we can start to look at how we address the market and how we see the market.
Jeff LeeRight. Well, we look forward to seeing you next week, but also generally we look forward to seeing the 350F program continue to then get new orders and take shape and we look forward to the prototype soon very soon. Thank you so much, Crawford. And again, we’ll see you next week in Singapore.
Crawford HamiltonThanks, Jeff. Good to good to see you. And I’ll see you next week. Cheers.
Jeff LeeThanks again to Crawford Hamilton at Airbus. Meanwhile, with Cargo Facts Asia just around the corner, my colleague, senior associate editor Robert Luke, got a quick take from two speakers on our freighter leasing panel, Eamonn Forbes, chief commercial officer of Titan Aviation Leasing, and Nuno Leal, chief marketing officer of World Star Aviation.
Robert LukeNuno and Eamonn, thank you for joining me today. As we get ready for the cargo facts Asia event, we just wanted to gather a quick thought from you guys on what you expect to see happening in the region as lessors in this business. Eamonn, I’ll start with you.
Eamonn ForbesThanks Robert. Pleasure to be here and uh, looking forward to going to Singapore next week for cargo facts Asia and we and tighten we see the Asia Pacific market as having been extremely resilient over the course of the last few years and we continue to see it being resilient. In fact, we probably see it being resilient and growing.
Robert LukeThank you so much. And Nuno, what are your thoughts on CF Asia as we approach the event?
Nuno LealRobert. Well, the airfreight market in in Asia Pacific has suffered 2 difficult years or has been going through too difficult years recently. We see very positive signs of recovery and expansion very much anchored in the in the ecommerce growth throughout the region and throughout the globe. We’ll start seeing a lot of potential in the region for both a narrow bodies and white bodies in the coming years in the region, and that’s both for a replacement of older technology such as 737 classics or 740 sevens, but also for expansion and all the indicators that we see, we’ll look at strong expansion coming over the next two decades and we’ll start itself is on an expansion mode in the region, expanding presence of our portfolio of freighter aircraft in this market, both by establishing partnerships with new clients and also by reinforcing. And the number of aircraft that we have with existing customers, of course we keep a a close look at a new projects that come here or there and we are looking at supporting those startups as well as as the market continues to recover.
Robert LukeThank you very much for sharing your insight and feedback on the market. Cargo facts Asia stakeholders and attendees get ready. Here he comes.
Jeff LeeThat was Titan Aviation Leasing’s Eamonn Forbes and World Star Aviation’s Nuno Leal. And that’s all the time we have today. For more coverage of the freighter aircraft market, visit cargo facts.com. Thank you very much for tuning in, and join us again next time. And for those joining us in Singapore next week, we can’t wait to see you.
