The air cargo industry has demonstrated a robust beginning to 2025, maintaining momentum from last year’s strong performance. According to a report sourced from Yahoo Finance, analysts predict that demand growth could decrease by up to two-thirds as the market normalizes, yet a 4% growth rate would still be considered a solid year.
Read also: Air Cargo Volume Growth Set to Slow Down in 2025
Data from the IndexBox platform corroborates this outlook, indicating that the global air cargo volume experienced a modest dip at the start of January 2025. While freight rates decreased by 3.7% sequentially during the first week of January, they remain significantly up by 26% compared to the previous year. Moreover, the airfreight rates along the crucial China-North America corridor have seen a smaller decline than usual from their December peaks.
Despite the initial dip in demand, the early weeks of January present a brighter picture compared to historical trends. The director of revenue management at Etihad Cargo noted minimal declines during the typically slow end-of-year period, suggesting sustained strength into January leading up to the Chinese New Year.
Furthermore, Xeneta’s monthly report highlighted a 12% increase in air cargo volumes over 2024, driven in part by e-commerce, which accounted for more than half of the air cargo out of Asia. This growth is further emphasized by the 15% rise in global spot rates, bringing them close to $3/kg.
Looking ahead, logistics companies like Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group anticipate a shift in market dynamics, with a more balanced approach between spot market volatility and long-term contracts. The rate of air cargo volume growth is projected to cool slightly to between 4% and 6% this year, with several downside risks identified, including geopolitical tensions and potential trade policy changes by the United States.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
