17/01/2025
In response to a viable ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, the Houthi leadership has laid out achievable, though vague, criteria for a cessation of Red Sea attacks.
“We will continue to follow the stages of implementing the agreement,” Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi said. “Our stance regarding Gaza is tied to the position of the Palestinians, and we will stand with them during the implementation phase starting Sunday… any Israeli breach, massacre, or siege — we will be immediately ready to provide military support to Palestinians.”
The Economist suggests the Houthis may be making as much as $2.1bn a year from cutting deals for safe passage through the Red Sea, citing expert testimony at November’s UN Security Council. If true, the publication argues, this would give the Houthis a critical incentive to maintain attacks.
Hans Tino Hansen, head of Risk Intelligence, told The Loadstar his organisation did not expect Houthi strikes to end with the ceasefire agreement.
“We do not believe the ceasefire in itself will reduce the attacks from the Houthis, but if it is successful it is step in the right direction,” he explained.
In an analysis of the reported ceasefire, eeSea head of forecasting and operations Destine Ozuygur writes today: “Putting aside the question of what to do with successfully absorbed capacity and the need for reassurance that Houthis will not attack vessels despite a freshly announced ceasefire, there is also the stark reality that carriers are on the cusp of actualising carefully planned network overhauls for 2025’s new alliances.
“Restructuring the vessel schedules for the Premier Alliance and Gemini Cooperation that are slated to begin as early as 1 February would be a massive undertaking that requires full confidence in political reparations, along with a willingness to shoulder a short-term loss in capital gains.”
Albrecht Grell, head of OceanScore, highlighted that while a resumption of Red Sea transits would likely be beneficial for shippers, there was little incentive for shipping lines.
“…voyages will become shorter, vessels can slow down again, bunker bills, ETS costs will be reduced,” he said. “While this sounds like good news, the saving will be passed on to customers, so no real benefit to the lines, which rather benefited from the tonne-mile capacity shortage induced by the attacks.”
According to recent Drewry estimates, business-as-usual in the Red Sea and Suez Canal would see container shipping capacity increase by around 25% overall.
“The end of this shortage will induce further pressure on tonnage providers, mainly in the container business, the segment that has been holding up quite well until now,” added Mr Grell. “No good news for the owners who will see more competitive markets.”
Shipping lines Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suggested to Reuters that they would not be so easily coaxed back to Suez. A Maersk spokesperson said it was “too early to speculate”, while Hapag-Lloyd said it would “closely analyse the latest developments”.
Ms Ozuygur added that the most likely carriers to be first to return to Suez transits were CMA CGM, Cosco, and OOCL, given recently reported ad hoc transits.
“While we cannot definitively say which will be the first to formally dip its toes back in this water, the relatively generous timing for Ocean Alliance’s new Day 9 network roll-out in April, and previous tests from CMA CGM, OOCL, and Cosco on their partnered non-alliance services, suggest we could see an early appearance on these schedules first,” she writes.
