The rate of narrowbody passenger to freighter (P2F) conversions is slowing down although there is still more growth than with widebody freighters, recently released data shows.
Aviation consultant Cirium found that while narrowbody freighter conversions number less than widebody freighter conversions, growth of narrowbodies is higher.
There were 1,082 widebody aircraft on October 4 this year versus 977 on January 3 2020, Cirium fleet data has shown. There were also 569 narrowbody aircraft tracked on October 4 versus 380 on January 3 2020.
While there are less narrowbody conversion aircraft, there has been higher growth than with widebodies over the same time period, confirmed ‘The Freighter Market: Mixed Signals’ webinar by Cirium.
Following a surge in conversions in 2021, narrowbody P2F conversions peaked in 2023 and the rate has now dropped off, according to the latest Cirium fleet forecast webinar.
“This year there’s been very few orders for narrowbody conversions,” said Daniel Hall, senior valuations consultant at Cirium. “Perhaps because of over exuberance of the previous 2-3 years.”
Narrowbody programmes now winding down include the 737-400 (AEI) and the 757 (Precision).
Chris Seymour, head of market analysis at Cirium, added that AEI are still converting regional MD-80 and CRJ aircraft “in relatively small numbers”.
AEI, Boeing and IAI are running programmes for the 737-800, which analyst IBA has previously said is dominating the market with too many conversions being carried out.
Hall added: “You could argue perhaps there were too many 737-800s converted a bit too soon.” He said there are about 60 737-800s parked by airlines and lessors currently.
Additionally, substantial numbers of the 737-300 are parked, alongside the 757. “FedEx have parked quite a large number of their (757) fleet this year. “Perhaps it too is coming to the end of its useful life,” Hall added.
IAI and Pemco have also been carrying out 737-700 conversions in “very small numbers”.
Meanwhile, Airbus A31P2F conversions continue to grow, with current programmes in progress by EFW and 321 Precision, plus one in developed by C Cubed, observed Seymour. He questioned whether a fourth programme by Sine Draco is still in development due to lack of updates from the company.
There is a high number of A321P2F aircraft that is yet to enter service, found Cirium. “One could argue that four programmes is slightly too many for the A321,” Seymour remarked.
EFW and C Cubed also have programmes for the A320 freighter conversion.
Demand for passenger widebodies with the continued return of passenger networks has seen widebody feedstock in short supply for conversions, found the analyst.
Freighter conversion market to normalise but faces over oversupply
